From Luck to Certainty: The Math Showing AI Founders Can’t Lose
There is a point in every founder’s journey where the story of entrepreneurship stops being mystical and becomes mathematical. AI has pushed us firmly into that era. What once required luck, capital, and a rare combination of timing and talent now requires something far simpler: repeated, low-cost attempts multiplied by AI’s extraordinary speed.
And when you combine that capability with hard probability, the picture becomes astonishingly clear.
The game is no longer about hoping for success.
It is about engineering it.
The 9% Baseline: A Modern Founder’s Statistical Advantage
In my book, I introduced the 9% success rate—a realistic estimate of the percentage of small AI-powered products, micro-SaaS tools, AI agents, or automation solutions that gain meaningful traction when executed competently.
Historically, a founder might only be able to attempt one idea every few years. At that pace, a 9% success probability felt discouraging.
But in the AI era, you can build, validate, test, launch, and iterate every 1–2 weeks.
That means dozens of attempts are not aspirational—they’re normal.
And that’s exactly where the mathematics transforms your destiny.
The Formula That Changes Everything
To understand your advantage, we use the foundational probability formula:
P(≥1 success) = 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ
Where:
- p = success rate (0.09)
- n = number of attempts
- P(≥1) = probability of succeeding at least once
Using that formula, the probability curve looks like this.
Probability Milestones (Based on a 9% Success Rate)
50% Probability of Success
0.50 = 1 − (0.91)ⁿ (0.91)ⁿ = 0.50 n ≈ 7 attempts
Just seven attempts gives you a coin-flip chance of success.
75% Probability of Success
0.75 = 1 − (0.91)ⁿ n ≈ 15 attempts
Fifteen attempts give you a three-in-four chance of building a successful business.
90% Probability of Success
0.90 = 1 − (0.91)ⁿ n ≈ 26 attempts
Twenty-six attempts and you are operating at a nine-in-ten probability of success.
95% Probability of Success
0.95 = 1 − (0.91)ⁿ n ≈ 33 attempts
Thirty-three attempts push you into elite inevitability territory.
99% Probability of Success
0.99 = 1 − (0.91)⁷² n ≈ 72 attempts
This is the famous number from the book:
Seventy-two attempts create a 99% chance that at least one of your businesses succeeds.
But here is the critical clarification…
You Will Not Need 72 Attempts
The number exists to prove a point, not to set an expectation.
No competent founder, especially one leveraging AI, is going to need 72 tries.
The majority of founders who commit to consistent iteration will succeed far earlier—often between the 7th and 26th attempt, where the 50–90% probability window lies.
So why show 72?
Because it reveals the truth about the new entrepreneurial landscape:
If you are willing to attempt enough times, success becomes mathematically unavoidable.
It removes the emotion, the fear, and the myth of luck.
It exposes entrepreneurship for what it really is:
a probability engine.
Why Founders Succeed Sooner in the AI Era
There are four reasons you won’t need anywhere near 72 attempts:
1. AI accelerates learning speed
Each attempt sharpens your instincts, positioning, and execution.
2. AI compounds distribution and reach
Marketing, content, testing, and iteration are faster and cheaper than ever.
3. You begin to identify patterns
You quickly spot what works and discard what doesn’t.
4. Your reputation and audience start compounding
Even failed attempts build trust, followers, and opportunity.
By the time you are 10–20 projects in, the odds are heavily in your favour—not just mathematically, but practically.
The Founder’s New Advantage: Attempt Compression
The real superpower is not the success probability itself—it’s the compression of attempts.
In the pre-AI era, 72 attempts might have taken decades.
Today, a determined founder can realistically attempt:
- 1 idea every 2 weeks
- 26 ideas per year
- 72 ideas in under 3 years
And every one of those ideas is now faster, cheaper, and easier to build than at any point in history.
The Paradigm Shift: Success Is No Longer Rare
Once you understand the probability curve—and once you accept that AI reduces the cost, speed, and difficulty of each attempt—you begin to see entrepreneurship differently.
You stop playing to “avoid failure.”
You start playing to accumulate attempts.
And when you accumulate enough attempts, the maths produces the outcome:
Success becomes inevitable.
Not because of luck.
Not because of timing.
But because you engineered it.
This is the future of founding in the AI era.
And the entrepreneurs who embrace it will dominate the next decade.